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Jeffrey Strahl's avatar

From the Lockdown Times i sent out minutes ago.

My assessment of the situation. The media are paying way too much attention to whether the 3 Iranian nuclear facilities targeted by the US strikes were totally destroyed vs much less damage inflicted. As long as the nuclear program lacks the means to convert enriched uranium which is in a gaseous form back to metal form, a process which requires a conversion plant, the program is dead in the waters. All the current evidence is that the conversion plant in Natanz, the only one which was known to be in existence, was destroyed. [EDIT: my bad, in Isfahan. Also, solid form cannot be enriched further, would need to be converted to gas, also requiring a conversion plant] If this is not the case, then the weight of the rest of the evidence would indicate the US/Israel war on the program was and remains a failure.

The ouster of the Assad regime took out a major asset of Iran in the region, exacerbating the drastic downgrading of Hezbollah. In addition, the new Syrian regime lacks the means to enforce any restrictions upon access to its air space. This enabled the Israeli Air Force and later the US Air Force to fly across Syria scot-free and then likewise across Iraq, whose airspace is defended by …. the US. The next country going east is Iran. Thus, the Israeli forces were able to create and maintain total air superiority over Iran, and destroy targets at will, including the Iranian air defense system and missile storage and launch sites. The IDF’s ability to operate on the ground via its clandestine units and special forces greatly increased this dominance. Iranian missile strikes on Israel did cause lots of damage and killed 28 people, but this pales compared to the damage inflicted upon the Iranian state/business entity. Any future near-term resumption of fighting would find the Iranian entity at a vast disadvantage.

And the promoters of the Multipolar World Order, the “alternative” pro-4IR narrative, are using the recent war to push their narrative very hard. They will do so no matter what’s going on. At this point, the Russian and Chinese state/business entities are not on their strong feet in the Southwest Asia theater. The fact that BRICS-Plus lacks even internal unity on this matter (India is quite explicitly supporting Israel, UAE is doing so more subtly, see programs on its media outlet, Al Arabiya) does not help the Russian and Chinese regional interests.

Penelope's avatar

Thank you Eric for adding some levity to this situation. From what I can gather, most people around here don’t care about all of this and they’ve already forgotten how this latest chapter began. This forgetting is intentional and part of the digital fog. Despite it being concerning, I’m trying to stay awake. Lots of love.

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